The Big One

            It sounds ominous to anyone without them even having to know what it refers to. That said, it’s important to know what it does refer to, an earthquake. But not just any earthquake, a big earthquake, a really big earthquake. One that is so colossally frightening, it is universally known by those three words- the big one. 

The damage that the big one could cause.
Photo courtesy of The New Yorker

            The big one is an earthquake that is likely to occur sometime in the next 50 or so years. It will likely have a magnitude of 8.0-8.6 on the Richter scale. It will be the result of two tectonic plates colliding, and one shifting beneath the other. One of these is the North American plate, the plate that holds most of the US, Canada, and Mexico. It is a massive plate. It’s colliding with the Juan de Fuca plate, which is a fraction of the size of the North American plate. According to an article by Kathryn Schulz in the New Yorker, the chances of the big one happening in the next 50 years are one in three.

            No, it’s not guaranteed to happen. But the likelihood of it happening is great. It’s overdue by centuries. And it’s not the only earthquake Californians should worry about.

            In 1906, a massive earthquake struck Northern California. It had a magnitude of 7.8 and destroyed most of San Francisco, killing over 3,000 people. This quake, along with several others in the recent history of California, have led to the intense studying of California’s geology and seismology.

            It just so happens that the most famous fault in the world is in California. It’s so famous that there was a movie made about it starring “The Rock.” In fact, if you asked a random American, from any part of the country, they could probably only name one fault- the San Andreas Fault. 

Part of the San Andreas Fault. Photo courtesy of  esurance blog

            The San Andreas Fault is not the biggest or most active fault in the world, but it is above ground in the most populated state, which has led it to be the most researched. One of the most recent studies by Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), and published by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), showed the likelihood of earthquakes in California. This study projected earthquakes that would happen in the next 30 years. It found that there is greater than a 99% probability that California will experience a 6.7 magnitude earthquake over the next 30 years.

            99%

            Let that sink in for a moment. A 6.7 magnitude earthquake is all but guaranteed to happen over the next three decades in California. No, that’s not nearly as big as the big one. It’s not even as big as the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco. But it’s still a big quake.

            For perspective, the 1994 Northridge earthquake had a magnitude of 6.7. It caused well over $13 billion in damages, including the collapse of parts of the Santa Monica Freeway. The Northridge earthquake killed over 60 people and injured 9,000. That earthquake is guaranteed to happen again in the next 30 years, somewhere in California.

The Santa Monica freeway after the Northridge quake.
Photo courtesy of  The Atlantic

            The same study found that there is a 94% chance that a 7.0 magnitude earthquake will happen in the same time span. It found that there is about a one in two chance, 46% probability that a 7.5 magnitude quake will happen. There is a 4% chance that an 8.0 or greater earthquake will happen. On average, a 6.7 magnitude earthquake happens in California every five years. A 7.5 magnitude earthquake happens on average every 48 years.

            The scariest thing is that it could happen anywhere in California. The study by USGS found that there is a 97% chance of a 6.7 quake happening in Southern California and a 93% chance of another 6.7 quake happening in Northern California.

            The San Andreas Fault runs along LA’s three main power and utility routes, including the I-5, the I-10, and the I-15. A quake along any of these points could disrupt traffic and life in LA and Southern California for weeks or months.

            The big one, or another quake along the San Andreas Fault could occur at any time. Statistically, they are likely to happen in the next 30 to 50 years. A 6.7 magnitude earthquake, like the 1994 Northridge quake is all but guaranteed to happen somewhere in California, possibly in both Southern and Northern California.

The big one could strike Northern California or Southern, or both.
Photo courtesy of  AMTV Channel on YouTube

            All this doesn’t point to moving out of California. Nor does it mean that your home will be destroyed or necessarily even affected. It just goes to show that you should get prepared. Make sure your house is prepared for an earthquake by getting it inspected. Strap down heavy objects such as dressers, bookcases, and televisions to make sure they don’t fall over causing serious injury. Stock up on emergency water, food, and medical supplies as these will be scarce during an emergency.

            A big earthquake will most likely strike California in the coming years, and the best way to survive it is to be prepared. The quake may strike 30 days from now or 30 year from now. The best way to make sure you’re ready is to start preparing now. Emergency food has a 30 year shelf life, so it will still be good if the earthquake happens in 30 years. Invest now to protect your future. 
            Get prepared for the big one at www.prepandsave.com